As Bitcoin continues to ripe into a globally recognized asset class, the question arises: Is the 4-year Bitcoin cycle still relevant in 2025? With increasing institutional involvement, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, and growing macroeconomic influence, some analysts believe the historic price rhythm may be fading. But one respected voice in the space—on-chain analyst Rational Root—believes the cycle is far from dead.
Root argues that despite surface-level changes, the underlying structure of Bitcoin’s market behavior still cleave closely to the well-documented 4-year pattern driven by halving events. In this article, we dive into the logic, data, and evolving outlook behind his position.
What Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle?
At the core of Bitcoin’s design lies the halving, a programmed event that degrades the block reward miners receive by 50% every 210,000 blocks (~every 4 years). This event has historically acted as a supply shock, eventually leading to major bull markets within the next 12–18 months.
Classic Cycle Breakdown:
- Year 1 (Post-Bear) – Accumulation phase
- Year 2 – Gradual price rise, often ending with parabolic growth
- Year 3 – Correction & distribution
- Year 4 – Capitulation & recovery, setting up the next cycle
This pattern appeared clearly in Bitcoin’s price history:
- Peaks in 2013, 2017, 2021
- Bear markets followed each cycle
- Accumulations in 2015, 2019, and 2023
Is the Cycle Breaking? Why Some Analysts Think So
There’s no shortage of skepticism in 2025. Several macro and market factors have contributed to the belief that the 4-year pattern might be losing steam:
- Institutional adoption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs by firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are changing market flows.
- Increased liquidity: With Bitcoin now traded on Wall Street, it behaves more like historical assets (risk-on) than an isolated crypto asset.
- Shorter information cycles: With better data and faster access, market participants respond more rapidly, compressing reactions.
Changing miner behavior: Large-scale mining operations are better capitalized and more efficient, potentially muting halving impacts.
Yet, amid this evolution, Rational Root points to a deeper, consistent signal.
Rational Root’s Perspective: The Cycle Is Evolving, Not Ending
Rational Root, known for his high-quality on-chain analysis and visual models, maintains that the Bitcoin cycle remains intact—though it’s adapting.
In a recent thread and appearance on Bitcoin Magazine’s podcast, Root emphasized:
“The structure is still there. The players have changed, but human behavior hasn’t. The Bitcoin cycle remains one of diminishing volatility, but repeating rhythm.”
According to his analysis:
- The 2022–2023 bear market bottom aligned closely with previous cycle lows in timing and drawdown depth.
- The 2024 halving, which occurred in April, was followed by steady price appreciation into Q2 2025—just like in past cycles.
- Long-term holders (LTH) are again distributing slowly into strength, a hallmark of past pre-peak behavior.
Key Metrics Supporting the 4-Year Thesis
Root highlights several on-chain indicators and patterns that support the continued relevance of the 4-year cycle:
Realized Price vs Market Price
- Bitcoin’s current market price remains above the realized price, suggesting healthy market structure, typical of mid-cycle growth.
MVRV Z-Score
- The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is entering the yellow zone (~2–3), which historically precedes peak mania but confirms bullish momentum.
Long-Term Holder Behavior
- LTH supply peaked in early 2024 and is now slowly declining—a sign that experienced investors are taking profits, often a precursor to new all-time highs.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
- Currently in the “belief” phase, just as in mid-2017 and early 2021—suggesting more upside before the cycle peak.
Why This Time Might Not Be Different
The saying “this time is different” tends to be dangerous in markets. Rational Root argues that while external factors evolve, human psychology and scarcity mechanics remain the same:
- Bitcoin halving still cuts supply, while demand steadily grows.
- Greed and fear still drive price action.
- While institutional flows change the speed and scope of moves, they don’t erase the cycle—they reshape it.
Moreover, the emergence of Layer 2 innovations (e.g., Lightning Network, Runes, and Ordinals) adds new use cases without disrupting the underlying economic engine.
Final Thoughts: A Cycle Still Worth Watching
As we move deeper into the post-halving environment of 2025, Bitcoin appears to be walking in rhythm with its historic cycles, albeit with more sophistication and volatility dampening.
Rational Root’s message is clear: the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle is not over—it’s maturing. Investors should treat it not as a rigid rulebook, but a probabilistic framework that reflects market psychology, economic incentives, and network growth.
Stay informed, not complacent. Recognize the rhythm—but stay flexible.