Wall Street just gave Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) a major vote of confidence: Bernstein analysts raised their price target to $510, a full $237 above the previous consensus, after the stock surged roughly 12% on Tuesday and another 3% on Wednesday blog.mexc.com+15investopedia.com+15fortune.com+15. This isn’t just hype—the analysts called Coinbase “the most misunderstood company in crypto.” Let’s unpack why.
Who Made the $510 Price Call?
- The upgrade came from Bernstein’s crypto research team, led by Gautam Chhugani chicagostarmedia.com+6investopedia.com+6dlnews.com+6dlnews.com+4coindesk.com+4chicagostarmedia.com+4.
- Previous target was $310; today’s $510 is the highest on Wall Street, far exceeding the average $273 tracked by Visible Alpha coindesk.cominvestopedia.com+1blog.mexc.com+1.
Why “Misunderstood”?
Bernstein argues the market underestimates Coinbase because it’s not just a retail trading app:
- “Crypto’s universal bank”—servicing retail, institutions, stablecoins, staking, custody, derivatives, and more blog.mexc.com+15coindesk.com+15dlnews.com+15.
- The exchange thrives despite competition; traditional brokers still lag months behind coindesk.com.
- Investors haven’t fully grasped its multi-layered growth potential.
Coinbase’s Expanding Business Model
Beyond spot trading, Coinbase is building an ecosystem:
- Stablecoins: Accounts for ~15% of revenue, with Shopify integration beginning chicagostarmedia.com+3investors.com+3vizologi.com+3barrons.com+2barrons.com+2blog.mexc.com+2s27.q4cdn.com+3coindesk.com+3site.financialmodelingprep.com+3.
- Institutional custody: Trusted by 8 of 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETF providers vizologi.com+13coindesk.com+13site.financialmodelingprep.com+13.
- Derivatives: Tad over $1B after acquiring Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange finance.yahoo.com+15investing.com+15dlnews.com+15coinbureau.com+4coindesk.com+4site.financialmodelingprep.com+4.
- Base L2 network: Second-largest Ethereum layer‑2, now issuing wrapped tokens (cbADA & cbLTC) to drive on-chain activity and sequencer fees site.financialmodelingprep.com+6ainvest.com+6cryptoslate.com+6.
Advocate Will Clemente dubbed Coinbase “a crypto super‑app,” not just an exchange dlnews.com+2investors.com+2coindesk.com+2.
What Makes Bernstein Bullish
Key reasons for the surge in sentiment:
- Regulatory tailwinds (GENIUS/Clarity Acts) give Coinbase more freedom dlnews.com.
- Ongoing Bitcoin ETF momentum and rising institutional adoption ft.com+1wsj.com+1.
- Strong revenue diversification: trading (+162% y/y), subscription (+64%), custody (+??%) s27.q4cdn.com.
- Solid financials: 2024 revenue of $6.6B (+111% y/y), net income $2.6B, and $9.3B in USD reserves en.wikipedia.orgcoindesk.com+8s27.q4cdn.com+8blog.mexc.com+8.
Risks & Headwinds
- Regulatory scrutiny remains a major overhang (SEC investigations, U.S. policy uncertainty) cryptoslate.com+7en.wikipedia.org+7coinbureau.com+7.
- Trading volume dips during bear markets hit fee revenue hard .
- Wall Street skeptics like Monness maintain cautious outlooks with targets as low as $275 barrons.com.
Investor Takeaways
- The strong $355–360 range is gaining momentum, challenging the bearish consensus.
- Bullish investors should track:
- Regulatory developments
- ETF inflows and institutional custody metrics
- Base network activity and token volume
- Those wary of regulatory or cyclical risk may want to wait for dips or clearer catalysts.
Conclusion
Bernstein’s bullish forecast shines a spotlight on Coinbase as more than just a crypto trading platform—it’s evolving into a digital asset infrastructure powerhouse. That may explain why it’s still largely “misunderstood” by the market.
If you’re bullish on crypto infrastructure and global adoption trends, $510 might not be frivolous—it may be understated.