With the popularity of the 2025 rally of Bitcoin, there seems to be an unnoticeable transition under the hood. Although the bull run is holding firm, on-the-chain statistics indicate that Long-Term Bitcoin Holders, the same group of investors traditionally regarded as the most difficult to break are starting to liquidate their deposits. The trend might pose a major turning point of the current bull cycle.
On-Chain Data Signals Profit-Taking
Recent data from leading analytics platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant shows a notable uptick in selling behavior from long-term holders. Two major indicators confirm this:
- Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders has surged, suggesting these wallets are moving coins at significant profit levels.
- The Cumulative Distribution Days (CDD) ratio has crossed 0.25, a level historically associated with major shifts in market behavior.
Additionally, the supply held by long-term holders has started to decline slightly, an early signal that the cohort is distributing some of their holdings.
Why Long-Term Holders Are Selling Now
There are several reasons why veteran holders might be trimming their positions:
- Realization of Profits: A large percentage of long term wallets had purchased BTC at the lows of 202223. As the prices touch or surpass all-time highs, prices are in full cash out mode.
- Macro Uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions, change in expectations of interest rates and ETF rebalancing schedules are causing caution.
- Rebalancing Strategies: The rebalancing of the portfolio is a well known phenomenon when investors aim to realize gains or to rotate into other investments.
Historical Parallels
This behavior isn’t new. In 2017 and 2021, long-term holders began to sell during the late stages of bull runs.They however left but that did not stop the rallies immediately. Rather, it generally came accompanied by a surge of either additional volatility or a setback prior to the last leg up-or, in certain instances, a cycle peak.
What This Means for the Market
The selling by long-term holders doesn’t necessarily spell doom for Bitcoin’s momentum. In fact, continued demand from:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Institutional buyers
- High-net-worth individuals
…has so far absorbed this selling pressure.
According to technical analysts, however, caution is advised. Provided that Bitcoin does not overcome some major resistance levels including the ones at 80,000 and 85,000 the market may cool off. The rally may be prolonged on the other side by sustained inflows of ETF.
Investor Takeaways
If you’re navigating this market, here are some points to consider:
- Watch on-chain metrics like SOPR and CDD to gauge when selling may accelerate.
- Don’t chase green candles. Profit-taking from whales often precedes short-term corrections.
- Reassess your risk profile. If you’re heavily exposed, it may be wise to rebalance like the long-term holders are doing.
Conclusion
The rise in the price of Bitcoin in 2025 has been one of the most eventful in recent history, yet because even a bull market rarely goes on forever, profit-taking is a foregone conclusion. The long term holders who are just starting to sell is not an indication of panic situation because it is the normal process taking place in the market. There will be three aspects that will determine how well this will be either the start of a top or just a pause; it will be related to how the rest of the market, especially the institutional buyers react within a few weeks.