Bitcoin has shot up spectacularly to mid‑2025, Bitcoin Bull Run Over or Just Starting to more than 70K in early July only to retreat to the region of 65K to 68K. The merchants, as well as the institutional investors are all listening in, and one question that is in the air is whether this bull market is getting weary or getting hot again.This article analyzes data and trends to answer that.
Bitcoin’s Performance So Far in 2025
- By the first half of 2025: Bitcoin will have surged almost 40% on the back of the positive energy created after the halving in April of 2024.
- Key peaks:
$72K reached in late June - $64K retest in early July
- Compared to past bull runs: The current cycle has shown more sustained growth vs similarly timed phases in 2017 and 2021, though volatility remains high.
On-Chain and Market Signals
- Whale accumulation: Wallets holding 1K+ BTC have increased holdings since May, suggesting confidence.
- Active addresses: Daily active wallets remain stable around 1.2M–1.5M, signaling consistent usage.
- Miner reserves: Large bitcoin miners are not selling coins instantly thus taking away supply in the market.
- Transaction volume: On-chain transaction volume is increasing by -15-15 per cent since the beginning of 2025, continuing to see demand.
Macroeconomic and Institutional Drivers
- Federal policy: U.S. CPI is going downward, and it may suggest lower rates in the end of 2025, which contributes to crypto markets in most cases.
- Inflation hedge demand: Persistent inflation (~3.8%) fuels Bitcoin’s role as an inflation-resistant asset.
- Institutional inflows: Monthly U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong—averaging $1B+, validating legitimacy.
- Global uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions and weaker currencies abroad continue to position Bitcoin as a digital safe-haven.
Technical Analysis Overview
- Key levels:
- Support: Around $60K–$62K
- Resistance: Between $70K–$72K
- Moving Averages: The 50-day average remains above the 200-day (a bullish sign), sitting near $66K
- RSI & MACD:
- RSI at approximately 58, showing positive but not overbought conditions
- MACD line remains above the signal line, reinforcing bullish momentum
Analyst Predictions & Market Sentiment
- Bullish sentiments: Experts at large companies (Fundstrat, ARK Invest) expect the price of BTC to go up to $80 and 100K by the end of the year.
- Bearish camp: A few note there is a chance of a bearish run down to $55-60K, more so in case of bearishness in sentiments.
- Fear and Greed Index: Lingering around 65 (Greed) It is optimistic, i.e., not an euphoric level.
- Community feeling: Crypto Twitter is becoming more bullish; the most popular hashtags become #BTC2050 and #BitcoinHalving.
Risks That Could End the Rally
Regulatory crackdowns: New U.S. or international regulations could chill investor appetite.
Overleveraged markets; Increase of futures or margin trading might lead to severe liquidations.
Stablecoin weaknesses: Losing trust in stablecoins may spread out to wider crypto markets.
Global macro shocks: Surprise in recession, headline inflation or central bank actions or surprises may limit gains.
Conclusion
Still the question is, Is the Bitcoin bull run deceased or have we started? Technical indicators, on-chain indicators, and macroeconomic indicators are all a bullish indicator but do not announce the complete safety. As a long-term investor you might consider it is part of the bull cycle. Short-term volatility monitoring might provide you with a strategic entry point the next time the price goes down.